SOME ASPECTS OF LONG-TERM DYNAMICS OF THE NUMBER OF BACKGROUND SPECIES OF RODENTS AND CHANGES IN SOLAR ACTIVITY BY THE EXAMPLE OF FOREST-SCRUB BIOTOPS OF ULYANOVSK REGION

Berezovskaya Galina Borisovna, Candidate of biological sciences, senior lecturer, sub-department of human biology and medical knowledge foundations, Ulyanovsk State Pedagogical University named after I. N. Ulyanov (4 100-letiya so dnya rozhdeniya V. I. Lenina square, Ulyanovsk, Russia); zoologist of the epidemiological division, Center of Hygiene and Epidemiology of Ulyanovsk region (5 Pushkareva street, Ulyanovsk, Russia), fragilis@list.ru
Korobeynikova Adele Semenovna, Independent researcher, fragilis@list.ru
Hicarova Anna Nikolaevna, Postgraduate student, Penza State University (40 Krasnaya street, Penza, Russia), an_stolyarova@mail.ru

574.34

10.21685/2307-9150-2016-3-2

Background. To study and forecast the number of rodents is an important task of the theory of population dynamics that has implications for agriculture and epidemiology. The article analyzes the data on the number of background species of rodents in forest-scrub biotops of Ulyanovsk region for the period from 1972 to 2015 in comparison with changes in solar activity. The established connection allows to use the solar activity index in compiling the estimates.
Materials and methods. The authors used the data on the number of rodents in forest-scrub biotops in 1972–2015, collected by zoologists of the Center of hygiene and epidemiology of Ulyanovsk region by the standard method. The researchers also sed the values of Wolf numbers from the official website: http://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles. Nonparametric statistical methods, spectral and autocorrelation analyses were applied to analyze the data.
Results. In forest-scrub biotops of Ulyanovsk region there were recorded 12 spe-cies of rodents. The analysis included the data on the number of 3 background types. In the course of the study it has been found that the numbers of these populations change simultaneously and have a significant relationship of moderate strength. With the help of spectral and autocorrelation analyses there has been established a cyclicity in the population dynamics of the bank vole and the yellow-necked mouse. Such cyclicity is more pronounced for the bank vole. Changes in the number of the bank vole and the yellow-necked mouse have a weak negative relationship with changes in solar activity (r = –0,37; t = 2,6; p = 0,01). The found regularities allow to assume a decrease in the number of rodents in forest-scrub biotops of Ulyanovsk region in the period from 2016 to 2019 to average long-term values and an increase in the number in subsequent years.
Conclusions. In population dynamics of the yellow-necked mouse and the bank vole in forest-scrub biotopes of Ulyanovsk region, there is a two or three-year cycle. The number of the yellow-necked mouse and the bank vole is associated with changes in solar activity. With increasing solar activity there is a decrease in these populations. The found regularities allow to build a forecast of changes in the num-ber of rodents in forest-scrub biotopes of Ulyanovsk region.

dynamics, solar activity, abundance cycles, forecasting.

1. Puzachenko Yu. G. Ekologiya populyatsiy: struktura i dinamika: materialy Vseros. soveshchaniya [Ecology of populations: structure and dynamics: proceedings of the All-Russian council]. Moscow, 1995,vol.1,pp.96–143.
2. Hansson L., Henttonen H. Oecologia. 1985, vol. 67, no. 3, pp. 394–402.
3. Zhigal'skiy O. A. Zoologicheskiy zhurnal [Zoological journal]. 2002, no. 9, pp. 1078–1106.
4. Bobretsov A. V. Zoologicheskiy zhurnal [Zoological journal]. 2009, vol. 88, no. 9, pp. 1115–1126.
5. Panteleev P. A. Sibirskiy ekologicheskiy zhurnal [Siberian ecological journal]. 2008, no. 1, pp. 195–203.
6. Maksimov A. A. Vliyanie solnechnoy aktivnosti na atmosferu i biosferu Zemli [Solar activity impact on the Earth’s atmosphere and biosphere]. Moscow: Nauka, 1971, pp. 63–74.
7. Maksimov A. A. Mnogoletnie kolebaniya chislennosti zhivotnykh, ikh prichiny i prognoz [Perennial fluctuations of animal numbers, its causes and forecasts]. Novosi-birsk: Nauka, 1977, 248 p.
8. Maksimov A. A. Ekologiya [Ecology]. 1982, no. 1, pp. 38–45.
9. Selyunina Z. V. Vestnik zoologii [Bulletin of zoology]. 2003, vol. 37, no. 2, pp. 23–30.
10. Antonets N. V., Balaev A. K., Shumakova M. S. Ekosistemy, ikh optimizatsiya i okhrana [Ecosystmes, their optimization and protection]. 2013, iss. 8, pp. 106–113.
11. Mezhzherin V. A. Ekologiya [Ecology]. 1979, vol. 3, pp. 3–11.
12. Druzhinin I. P. Voprosy geografii [Geographical issues]. 1970, no. 79, pp. 15–51.
13. Nagovitsyn Yu. A. Kvaziperiodicheskie proyavleniya solnechnoy aktivnosti na razlich-nykh vremennykh shkalakh: dis. d-ra fiz.-mat. nauk [Quasiperiodic manifestations of solar activity at various time scales: dissertation to apply for the degree of the doctor of physical and mathematical sciences]. Saint-Petersburg, 2006, 244 p.
14. Vozovik Yu. I. Voprosy geografii [Geographical issues]. 1970, no. 79, pp. 3–14.
15. Bitvinskas T. T. Dendroklimaticheskie issledovaniya [Dendroclimatic research]. Lenin-grad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1974, 171 p.
16. Karaseva E. V., Telitsina A. Yu., Zhigal'skiy O. A. Metody izucheniya gryzunov v polevykh usloviyakh [Rodent study methods in field conditions]. Moscow: LKI, 2008, 416 p.
17. Gromov I. M., Erbaeva M. A. Mlekopitayushchie fauny Rossii i sopredel'nykh territoriy. Zaytseobraznye i gryzuny [Mammals of Russia and adjacent territories]. Saint-Petersburg: Nauka, 1995, 641 p.
18. Bystrakova N. V., Ermakov O. A., Titov S. V. Opredelitel' myshevidnykh mlekopitay-ushchikh (otryad Nasekomoyadnye, Gryzuny) Srednego Povolzh'ya: metod. posobie [Middle Volga region’s murine mammals identification guide: learner’s guide (Insec-tivora, Rodentia)]. Penza: Izd-vo PGPU, 2008, 54 p.
19. Jedrzejewski W., Jedrzejewska B. Acta theriol. 1996, vol. 41, no. 1, pp. 1–34.